Finding Value and Managing Bets
How the AI identifies mispriced markets and how to manage your prediction portfolio.
Finding Value.
The AI Process.
- Scans all open markets across supported platforms.
- Estimates true probability using: historical base rates, current data, model consensus.
- Compares to market price.
- Flags markets where estimated probability differs from price by 10%+ (value threshold).
Managing Your Portfolio.
- Diversify. Spread bets across 10-20 uncorrelated markets. Never concentrate.
- Kelly Criterion. Size bets proportional to your edge. Larger edge = larger bet (but capped at 5% max).
- Time Decay. As resolution date approaches, prices converge. Take profits early if price moves your way.
- Track Results. Log every bet with: market, entry price, estimated probability, result. Calculate ROI monthly.